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XAU/USD Gold Potential Consolidation Analysis

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Chart is self-explanatory. Notice the change of character on first peak - no decline has been this sudden since last consolidation range. The volume on the peak is also the highest since the markup (ignore news peaks). This 'change of character' tell us that something different is happening in the market now. It was in markup, so therefore, it may be safe to say that it is doing something other than markup now - potentially a new consolidation range.

Price action and volume analysis in this area will tell us what is happening as time unfolds.
I will not take a position until the above has been analysed and a direction out of the range is evident.
May 17
Comment: Update on the range and what I'm looking for:
May 17
Comment: Another update and indication that we are doing the right thing:
May 17
Comment: Price being pushed back into the range when it tries to leave through the top may be seen as an early indication of distribution by some. However, I am going to wait until the end of Phase B. Phase C (UTAD or spring) is where we confirm whether it is accumulation or distribution and is usually the ideal place for first entry. It will offer the best R:R profile and a very tight SL. To take a trade before we complete Phase B is (unnecessary) higher risk.
May 17
Comment: Further update on range behaviour and bounds:
May 17
Comment: This is why you should stay calm and not enter early until you figure out what is happening! UT in Phase B seemed to keep rising which is a little unusual. Then I studied the reactions after BC. It seems we may have a non-horizontal/upward/strong consolidation range. Again, time will tell what's going on.
May 17
Comment: Looking like distribution, but, will wait and see to minimise risk.
May 17
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May 18
Comment: Fell asleep so could no longer analyse live. Woke up and have seen this.
May 18
Comment: 95 pip TP based on range size. SL 1264.
May 18
May 18
Comment: wrong link previously
May 18
Comment: Scaling in on retests is normal for Wyckoffians.
May 18
Comment: I hope you can see the scale in chance above on the lowest dotted line.
May 18
Comment: Sensible place to TP here:
May 18
Comment: markdown channel for final TP around 1230. Will probably leave markdown channel with or without a retest at that point.

May 18
Comment: Sometimes zooming out can help give a clearer picture. It helped find the markdown channel in this case.
May 18
Comment: Channel still being respected in markdown:
May 18
Comment: Trade published from this stage:
May 19
Comment: Go to this link (posted below too) to continue this analysis and trade.

Comments

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