4XSetUps

Gold @ daily @ technical Death Cross (100 SMA crosses 200 SMA)

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
If the 100 SMA is crossing the 200 SMA many traders are talking about "death cross" - `cause the midterm investors starting to get under pressure relative to the longterm investors ...

How ever,
not only the big picture about XAUUSD is ugly - the short term picture inclusive :)
  • 1188.10 intraday high while last FED press conference
  • 1157.30 intraday low while last FED press conference
  • 1165.36 intraday high while last ECB press conference
  • 1138.68 intraday low while last ECB press conference
should all be something like higher short entry capabilities into last temporarly lows (around 1088 while december`15) after historical all-time high (around 1920 in september`11). In principle, i can`t imagine that we`ll trade XAUUSD ever again around prices of 1199.80 (june`16 low) & 1241.50 (october`16 low), `cause the fed will raise their rates 2,3 times 2017. But not in 1st quarter`17, if i am anticipating the future right. See dates of FED & ECB (1st Quarter in chart also). All in all together these are the main reasons why i would prefere the downside not only 1st Quarter`17 - much more until end of 2017. New temproraly lows under 1046 are only a quest of time. And prices under 999 - one year ahead (while christmas 2017) - woudn`t surprise me any more ...

Take care about the death cross ahead,
this could initial technical price volatility out of the yearly lows of 2013 (white line by 1180.20) & 2014 (white line by 1132.08). Superordimnate price targets are form this point of view 1073.53 (yearly 2015 low) & 1061.20 (1st price of 2016) & even also around 1046 (temporarly lowest price while dec`15 since all-time high in sep`11).

Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)

Best regards
Aaron

Comments

Good observations Aaron, thx for sharing. I think shorting at pivots will be good when we see some short-covering. Rick Rule said that gold will be low for a long time.
Reply
Sharky8899. FoggyLights
@FoggyLights, If you fallowed Rick Rules advice in regards of timing trades... you would be bankrupt.
He is verry long term, short term he never gets it right. Go back the past 5 years of bear market, every year he said gold will go up this is just a pause bla bla,
the price dumped every year. Now if he says it will go down, then mybe he it will go up?? lool
Reply
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