GOLD: FOMC – KOG Report

FOMC – KOG Report

Gold has been consolidating for the early week sessions which is most likely in preparation for todays FOMC statement. We’re expecting there to be movement over the US session later and of course during the release of the statement. 19:30GMT is when the press conference starts so expect there to be some whipsaw price action.

We’ve placed the box where we think the price will play within today. Although trend lines and channels are subjective and can’t be relied upon, we’ve place what could possibly be the short term 1H trend on the chart for your reference. You can see on the chart we’re bouncing in and out of a key daily support zone, this level here is important as it can quite easily turn into resistance if broken. If this happens it will leave any buyers above hanging which we know the market loves to do. Its still early days yet there is a lot of support and the trend-line to break before this goes down further. Excalibur has given us an early short indication on Gold and a short indication on the DXY. This may change later as its still early and we have most of the day ahead before the release so we’ll update as we go along. We’re expecting there to be a bit of a move up in the DXY (please see the DXY chart published) which will give Gold a chance to target the lower support levels before resuming the bullish momentum. Again, dependent on the lower support levels holding.

We’re looking for a higher price of 1870-80 and a lower range price of around 1840-30. These are both important levels for Gold and we feel will determine the next direction for its short-term trend.

Our plan:

If this goes down first we’ll take a small long position towards the 1870+ levels with a strict SL in place.

If it goes up first we’ll look for resistance above around 1870-85 levels and we’ll test the short targeting the 1845 level. We’ll take one shot at it, if it doesn’t work we’ll wait until tomorrow once the market has settled and trade it as we see it.