OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
My view is that XAU seasonality is beginning to energise. The small look above the downward trendline (circled) today indicates to me that buyers aren't ready yet given the expected Christmas rally. Sellers came in to lower the price beneath with short targets spaced at $6-7 down to ~$1206 minimum. A bounce from or hold above any of these is possible, I will be playing these ranges until 10th December when the bull rally will take off in earnest targeting $1300 - $1340.

Things that I'm watching over the coming weeks:

- G20; I doubt any outcome from Trump/Xi/Putin will affect XAU price out of normal trading fluctuations, these are ongoing economic affairs.

- Dec ADP & NFP data; although likely to keep price below the top trend line any large fluctuation will normalise quickly, I will set a buy order ~$5 below the price immediately before the NFP data is released with a SL below $1200.

- Brexit; Brexit debate is heating up with a probable televised leaders' debate on 9th Dec. The parliamentary vote to take place on 11th. Uncertainty around the outcome is likely to push price a little higher, failing that it's likely to hold above $1205.

Future outlook: I believe XAU price will hold quite high after the January peak primarily due to the looming Brexit on 29th March. However I'll be watching carefully from early February.


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