XAUUSD bearish crab complete - so what next?
That happened quicker than expected. So what does the chart say:
Well the bearish crab is complete to the pip. Precisely to the pip the 3.618 extension of the AB leg has arrived at 1553.5 on the Daily time frame. Here is where we run into trouble. Technically the next movement for the bearish crab harmonic is a sharp down turn with the first TP at the B level (1478.739) the second TP at A level (1445.707) with possible further down trending moving forward. But there are problems with this: this is January which is usually the best month of the year for this pair, also the catalyst for Friday's charge is unlikely to be forgotten over the weekend.
This isn't the end of our story. There are signs that a turn South is inbound (I must be crazy right?). On Friday gold and oil both jumped as one would expect from a middle-east crisis. But not much else rallied to indicate XAU maintaining the current price or pushing higher. For example Silver closed marginally higher +0.41%, EURUSD closed down -0.44%, USDJPY -0.42% and even DXY +0.10%! The point I'm making is that the Dec-Feb seasonal rally affects more than just gold and oil. Suspicious... My last observation before stating my trading idea for the coming week is the break out on the daily chart at 1481 on 23 Dec has yet to be tested. And where are likely targets if it did? 1478 if it's impulsive, 1445 or less over time; hmmm... these numbers sound familiar.
With all this in mind, am I going short next week? Not a hope! I'll be sitting on the sidelines perhaps scalping until I see a clean break of 1555-6 or a decisive move to the down side, a correction would be nice here before rallying to a possible 1630+. Either way big moves are coming this month.
Good luck traders.
Well the bearish crab is complete to the pip. Precisely to the pip the 3.618 extension of the AB leg has arrived at 1553.5 on the Daily time frame. Here is where we run into trouble. Technically the next movement for the bearish crab harmonic is a sharp down turn with the first TP at the B level (1478.739) the second TP at A level (1445.707) with possible further down trending moving forward. But there are problems with this: this is January which is usually the best month of the year for this pair, also the catalyst for Friday's charge is unlikely to be forgotten over the weekend.
This isn't the end of our story. There are signs that a turn South is inbound (I must be crazy right?). On Friday gold and oil both jumped as one would expect from a middle-east crisis. But not much else rallied to indicate XAU maintaining the current price or pushing higher. For example Silver closed marginally higher +0.41%, EURUSD closed down -0.44%, USDJPY -0.42% and even DXY +0.10%! The point I'm making is that the Dec-Feb seasonal rally affects more than just gold and oil. Suspicious... My last observation before stating my trading idea for the coming week is the break out on the daily chart at 1481 on 23 Dec has yet to be tested. And where are likely targets if it did? 1478 if it's impulsive, 1445 or less over time; hmmm... these numbers sound familiar.
With all this in mind, am I going short next week? Not a hope! I'll be sitting on the sidelines perhaps scalping until I see a clean break of 1555-6 or a decisive move to the down side, a correction would be nice here before rallying to a possible 1630+. Either way big moves are coming this month.
Good luck traders.
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Rostin6101
about XAUUSD
Trade for markets opening: small short position with a SL at 1554 TPs as described above.