Since Dec the rally in Gold
has been sharp, I have performed some cycle analysis on the 4hr charts with data starting from the start of the rally in December. Interestingly the result represents some constant similarities from wave to wave (cycle to cycle), the amplitude and longitude of the waves over the 11 cycles can be averaged out to produce length and monetary value averages. Which in turn could help us to work out on a statistical probability of outside norm price changes.
Average move in USD: 26.86/oz
Average time per cycle: 5.4 days
(Data set from Dec 15 - Present)
In conclusion we can assume that on average every 5 days gold
will start a new cycle and the average rate of change
in USD terms will be around USD 27/oz. There have been some deviations with the largest move in a cycle representing USD 38.52/oz and the shortest cycle lasting just 2.5 days.