Recently I published a short opportunity on Gold where I managed to call the top of the market just before a daily reversal lasting since 20th February (currently around $40!), this Idea offers a high probability re-entry into this overall bearish trend I see developing.
The price story as I see it is showing us a big reversal of the overall uptrend that Gold experienced from August 18 till February 19. At the start of March Gold very forcefully broke through the major psychological barrier of 1300, it did this in one daily candle and offered nothing in the form of a retest. Major price levels nearly always get retested after being broken and get retested pretty much every time when they get broken very quickly like this. So even though Gold has given up nearly $20 from its recent low this month, I see this price action as just a simple retest. The overall bearish trend should continue.
Trading is just a game of probabilities so the best way to trade this opportunity will be to enter a short position either just at the 1300 level (very aggressive entry) or wait for some candle stick pattern such as an inside candle or pin bar to form at the resistance level (conservative entry). Stop loss should be placed on the other side of the 1300 barrier.
My long term target for Gold is to reach $1240, every previous reversal from the 1350 region has reached this figure so I see no reason why it shouldn't this time.
The price story as I see it is showing us a big reversal of the overall uptrend that Gold experienced from August 18 till February 19. At the start of March Gold very forcefully broke through the major psychological barrier of 1300, it did this in one daily candle and offered nothing in the form of a retest. Major price levels nearly always get retested after being broken and get retested pretty much every time when they get broken very quickly like this. So even though Gold has given up nearly $20 from its recent low this month, I see this price action as just a simple retest. The overall bearish trend should continue.
Trading is just a game of probabilities so the best way to trade this opportunity will be to enter a short position either just at the 1300 level (very aggressive entry) or wait for some candle stick pattern such as an inside candle or pin bar to form at the resistance level (conservative entry). Stop loss should be placed on the other side of the 1300 barrier.
My long term target for Gold is to reach $1240, every previous reversal from the 1350 region has reached this figure so I see no reason why it shouldn't this time.
Order cancelled:
The daily candle has closed breaking through the Key Level without any confirmation or candle stick offering a short entry.
This is why its always important to wait for confirmation on your trades. I would always prefer to give up a few pips to make sure I have a profitable trade!
Overall I do still remain bearish on Gold but now await a reaction at the next Daily Key Level OR if price retraces back to around 1300 and then rejects this to the upside it will offer a good opportunity to go Long... If this happens I will post a new Trade Idea.
This is why its always important to wait for confirmation on your trades. I would always prefer to give up a few pips to make sure I have a profitable trade!
Overall I do still remain bearish on Gold but now await a reaction at the next Daily Key Level OR if price retraces back to around 1300 and then rejects this to the upside it will offer a good opportunity to go Long... If this happens I will post a new Trade Idea.
This is because theres too much risk of either more whipsaw price action or just low volatility consolidation.
If price breaks 1280 I will write a new trade idea for it, but just keep watching what happens with Gold.