Gold: Box Breakout or Breakdown?

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
This is the daily of Gold .

Whatever market we're looking at, it's all about the US Dollar - and will continue to be for some time. The DXY has broken above major support. That being the case, I find it inconceivable that Gold should rally... yet, I cannot ignore the bull div forming in Gold .

We may be looking at a pause, in which case a breakout of last week's box formation could materialize. Though I suspect any rally would be contained to the 1250 level, which would offer a new short opportunity.

The Dollar may consolidate for next week, allowing Gold a reprieve.

Also, the speculative positioning is similar to the bottom of the 2015 rally.

If however gold breaks below and closes below 1205, expect 1150.
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