GOLD Short based on the correlation with Stocks

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Here is a trade based on correlations.
GOLD and NIKKEI are negatively correlated, Also Gold and USDJPY are negatively correlated too. (see correlation coefficient indicator in the chart) Therefore if you think NIKKEI may possibly be rising, then GOLD has more downside pressure from stocks.
In the last two posts I believed US stocks may rise, hence GOLD may fall. Also watch swing highs on GOLD RSI on 4 hours Timeframe. It makes consecutive lower lows.
Gold and Silver are likely to 'surprise' loads of people by continuing to pump north on a 1D to 3D trend. Below that time frame is largely a fair amount of 'noise'. I'm not saying that people shouldn't trade lower than 1D timeframes. People can do what they want with their money.

Correlations though good are likely to fail. Why? Because these are desperate times in currency, financial markets and international trade (on which a whole lot has been hanging). The people are voting for safety, as they increasingly are not trusting currencies and stocks. Inverted yield curves - Kudlow barking again (from 2007 when he told everybody don't panic- as he's doing again) - of a particular shape - the best indicator of probability of recession - is staring everybody in the face. If one believes Kudlow then this is boom time for the US - which leads the world - when actually the rest of the world is in very bad shape.

Then there is a crisis of logic: in the face of a US economy that is doing "fantastically well" - you have the FED and other central banks coordinating on what amounts to emergency stimulus measures. One does not need to be a financial analyst or fundamentalist to see that something is terribly wrong or inconsistent. Of relevance is that Gold in its substructure is already showing signs of distancing itself from USD correlations (positive or negative). Gold has been referred to as the 'prime predator' (a term borrowed from economic and social theory) - and it seems to be returning. China's and other central banks are boosting their buying and reserves. That alone tells a bigger story.

Those who wait and see - will see too late, after events have happened. (Just to be clear I have not referred to or implied any one person).
khansalarehsan Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, Thanks for taking your time. Very valuable. Thanks again
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