Is an End of Golds Recent Bull Trend Nigh?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Firstly - please excuse the quite busy/crowded chart here - usually my charts are a lot cleaner.

Anyway, as you can see from my last idea on Gold , we are quite possibly nearing the end of it's recent bullish run.

Momentum seems to be slowing down, we have reacted quite nicely from the 61% Fibonacci retracement and broken a reasonably long term trendline!

However, in my opinion, until we have breached and made a new low under the next blue dotted line beneath the current price action, we can not say it's bull trend is officially over.

If it makes a new low under this level (blue dotted line indicating the last low) then we have formed a lower low - the first indication of a bear trend.

I have plotted a short term Fibonacci on the chart as you can see. I really should have entered short where it hit the 38% retracement, as this was also a retest of the Trendline it just broke!

However I still believe we can drop down to it's first D1 extension, before we see a nice pullback up to $1225 area before we can enter short again. Once this level has been broken there isn't much in the way of support all the way down to $1200.

Also as you can see the current Fibonacci's D2 extension lines nicely up with $1200 too.

We will see how this plays out.

Currently Neutral, once the dotted line is breached - I'm short bias to $1200.
Comment: As you can see, bears are really in control on Gold at the minute.

We paused temporarily around the D1 Fibonacci extension; however we had very little in way of a pullback before smashing straight through it - giving us little opportunity to get back in short.

I am still watching Gold for entry short.

It has came very close to my prediction of $1200 - albeit quicker than I expected.

Right here however, if we call this as a temporary bottom around $1206~. We can draw a new Fibonacci on from it's last leg down so $1236ish to $1206ish we can see the 61% retracement lines up very nicely with the $1225.00 Resistance level.

So what I am watching for now, is a pullback from here to $1225.00 for a perfect entry for a short!

Of course, I am not saying this will definitely happen, I'm simply saying if it does happen, it's a nice entry short.
Comment: Gold has really been falling off a cliff the past week or so.

My prediction of $1200.00 has been achieved very quickly.

It showed very little in the way of a pullback, so unfortunately there was very little in the way of entry opportunties since the $1230's region.

The higher time frames look very bearish, but I am really anticipating a pullback soon, before a continuation to the downside.

Will post a new idea up shortly.
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