FX:XAGUSD   Silver / U.S. Dollar
48 1
Watch for the Breakout

Disclaimer: This is my trading opinion; it is neither recommendation nor invitation to trade.
The major leak in your analysis is that you are not considering the influence of the short term strench in EURUSD on the demande for XAGUSD.

So you are completely disregarding the increased demand for Silver against dollar, because of a weaker dollar. And here it is just short term, this trend should revert when the EURUSD starts falling again at and it will be difficult to extract value from the XAGUSD trade as the rising USD puts pressure on the demand for US silver.
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