NelsonVanAlden
Long

VEN UPDATE: PRIMARY SUPPORT HELD

BINANCE:VENBTC   VeChain / Bitcoin
  • On daily chart we've seen a bearish candle closing lower, a hammer and a bullish close past/near the initial candles body's middle respectively over the last 3 sessions (1st,2nd & 3rd Feb/18) - a potential morning star bullish candlestick formation

  • Previous, steeper acending trendline (green trendline )(from my previous analysis) has broke down with price finding support at primary channel support, confluent with 200EMA 4HR & between 50-618% retrace of the last significant test of channel support which. Where price found support also corresponds with 16/1/18 High

  • Price also broke above the corrective descending trendline (white falling trendline ) today as prices quickly retreated off lows

  • 03/02/18 high corresponds with previous broken rising trendline which is confluent with 64K resistance handle

  • One thing to watch for is the hidden bearish divergence present on stochastic with 3/2/18 high - indicative of pending bearish swing, likely in this case a correction following the general trajectory of the arrows which is somewhat confirmed by RSI which has further downside potential albeit diminishing as time goes on
    ..................
    Usually following any break a retest/confirmation follows, ideally it retraces back for higher low test of rising channel support once again and a entry will be made.
    Regardless If price bottoms out at any minor support line and rotates higher in continuation fashion a entry is warranted regardless with a manual trailing stop loss.
    If price rallies above 64K handle, a further entry is warranted aggressively should price close above the broken ascending trendline in the next few days. Regardless, 64K handle is the one to watch and any aggressive entry prior to price surpassing that inflection point should entail combative risk management IE using trailing stop losses or break even stops
    Potential entry zone - 26/1, 30/1 lows which are confluent provided price bottoms out & lacks downside momentum finding support on retest of broken falling trendline - Stop Loss region 48K - Target Channel resistance - Break even stop loss once/if price breaks above 64 handle

    -Better entry - 53.5K sats             confluent with rising channel support & 18th & 11th january highs - resistance turning support potentially with a confirmed higher low - Stop Loss region 40K - Target - channel resistance (with a trailing stop loss below every second bullish closing daily candle)

    -Set up is invalid if price breaks below the rising channel support or back below the white falling trendline , until it resurfaces above and continues higher. If a lower low forms - invalidated once again. If price ranges sideways breaking below/through the side of the channel, a entry is warranted on the first daily close back above the channel support

    If price breaks down towards the red trendline , a buy is warranted post any exhaustive candle on daily chart OR continued exhaustive candles forming higher lows on the candle bottoms on 4HR TF - the 'grade' of this potential buy is upgraded if we see regular bullish divergence on oscillators on 4HR TF

    Finally, counting from the bottom of the channel we may have seen impulse WAVE 1 complete, WAVE 2 seemingly bottom out after a sustained ABC correction, with price positioning for WAVE 3 Impulse (hysteria wave) - (subject to further modifications as time goes on)
Comment: Inverted Head & shoulders presenting itself, provided price doesn't break any lower than it currently is on Ven!
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