Crude Oil : Looking for a fresh direction

TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators continued to increase their record high net bullish positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders ( COT ) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions

The commercial traders’ position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totalled a net position of -629,330 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -6,070 contracts from the total net of -623,260 contracts reported the previous week.

U.S. crude oil production rose by 73,000 barrels per day last week, according to government data. Domestic U.S. output has rebounded by almost 16% since the most recent low in mid-2016 to a total of 9.78 million, bringing output close to levels of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The number of oil drilling rigs fell by four to 747 in the week to Dec. 15, data from General Electric (NYSE:GE)’s Baker Hughes energy services unit showed, the first cut to drilling numbers in six weeks. However, the rig count, an early indicator of future output, is still much higher than a year ago when only 510 rigs were active.

The steady increase in U.S. production has taken some of the edges off an OPEC-led initiative to support the market by cutting production.

On the daily chart , Crude Oil price is in the lower channel of the Bollinger Band but trying to move into the upper band.

Crude Oil is trading in a narrow range for a while. We see lower highs and higher lows. We see a possible triangle formation on the chart.

The intraday view is clear. If the price breaks above 57.42, its targets will be 57.81 and 58.20. If it breaks below 56.64 and 56.00 will be tested again.

My short term trade strategy will be based on ” Buy the support, Sell the resistance”. And I will keep my eye on the triangle pattern . The direction of the breakout will determine the midterm direction of the price.
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