Volume increases towards top of range tells me that this may be distribution.
Change of character in range shown by largest decline painted in red, other declines are clearly smaller. May be in Phase C with UTAD (upthrust after distribution) now where positions are distributed, therefore a good place to short. I would expect price to spend some time outside the range at the top (where it is at time of publication) where longs are slowly offloaded/shorts are acquired. This would confirm UTAD. Tight stop allows only a small loss with good R:R 10:1.
As you can see, it has left the large markup channel that I longed - at the very least this is highly suggestive of a new consolidation range even if it isn't distribution. However, behaviour and volume suggest distribution to me, hence the short.
TP has been a rough estimate based on size of trading range and when the range is left - TP is dynamic and may easily change as the trade progresses.
Change of character in range shown by largest decline painted in red, other declines are clearly smaller. May be in Phase C with UTAD (upthrust after distribution) now where positions are distributed, therefore a good place to short. I would expect price to spend some time outside the range at the top (where it is at time of publication) where longs are slowly offloaded/shorts are acquired. This would confirm UTAD. Tight stop allows only a small loss with good R:R 10:1.
As you can see, it has left the large markup channel that I longed - at the very least this is highly suggestive of a new consolidation range even if it isn't distribution. However, behaviour and volume suggest distribution to me, hence the short.
TP has been a rough estimate based on size of trading range and when the range is left - TP is dynamic and may easily change as the trade progresses.
Comment:
It may be wise to place the SL around 49.35 where the previous wick is.
Comment:
I have moved my SL here on re-assessment.
Comment:
