I refer to this post as an update to the previous analysis. Current analysis uses the rule that the exchange rate can move symmetrically on wave curves. This is what we will trade. The situation is easier now, since I have been in a short position for a long time, so I will keep this trade. The figure shows how the wave sequence develops on the MA curves. The rule is that we consider the position of the two extreme moving average curves. Here the number of MA days is indifferent. In case the analysis is correct, the target price for the exchange rate decrease is 5.50110usd