OANDA:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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UJ closed the week little changed, just pips from mondays open. This is no surprise after the previous weeks huge drop away from May's highs. Next week holds a lot of events that could cause a 'RISK OFF" sentiment, thus give the yen strength / USD weakness. The US faces some uncertainty with important data out on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday & Friday, Elections in the UK continue to cause volatility due to polls tightening, Chinese PMI (which often causes market reactions) is released, and potential for oil prices to continue falling could dampen sentiment.

Daily has been falling for nearly 2 weeks, and after the test of the recent lows around 110.500, price moved back to around the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci level, before falling again. We have been forming an ascending price channel with a low at 110.225 which would need to be taken out BEFORE we can see more downsides. The lower wick on the daily suggest we should re-test the lows of 111.000 (possibly by Tuesday), if based purely on technicals. Should this area be broken, 110.500 is the next key area where price could find support as it did on the 18th May.

For any push higher, 112.000 needs to be broken.

Lower timeframes (4hr) finds resistance around 111.500 level. When we were here previously, we saw rang-bound trading before smart money (large candle) pushed through the resistance despite poor home sales / PMI data out of the US.

All in all, I believe that the most likely scenario for USDJPY is a move lower (B), however be aware that we could range between 111.000 - 111.500. If the latter occurs, watch for catalysts that will push price higher or lower in the form of large candles showing the presence of 'smart money'. Fluctuations around a round number for example 111.000 may occur as institutions break their orders up into smaller fragments to get the best prices - DO NOT GET CAUGHT OUT!!!

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