khansalarehsan
Long

Medium to Long term plan for USDJPY (Long)

FX_IDC:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
USDJPY offers a good opportunity to go Long and here are the reasons that support it.
First I review USD markets.
US 10 years Yields has been depreciating all the way since 1997 until Brexit where it bounced and just in 2018 it appreciated from 2.412 (1 Jan) to 3.24 about 35%.


In the chart above see how US10Y after 7 months of consolidation made a breakout recently.
Looking at 30 years US yields is also presents the same picture of the US Markets.
This market also has been consolidating since 204 and just last week a massive breakout. It reached 3.249.


Next market to review is US 10 years Bonds. Look at the break lower on this market too. This is Weekly Time Frame. A negative correlation is expected between US bonds and FX.


Therefore if US Yields has been appreciating and US bonds has been depreciating significantly, particularly in the last week, hence we expect USD to gain soon.
In the chart above see how much room Bonds have to fall.


This is an all-time USD weighted average.

By the look it shows that is going down but see how many attempts it had to go higher since 2014.
Looking at the daily TimeFrame , it has a difficult job to break all these layers of resistance, but considering the current Yields and Bonds situation it is likely to see these levels to be broken too.

On a 4 hours TF it has just passed the midband of the most recent channel and it has some room before it gets to the upper band of the channel.

Bottom line: If Yields and Bonds made a massive breakout, we should see the same thing in the FX or USD weighted average. That has not seen yet.
For DXY also it has passed 95 level again last week and this level has been a strong support and resistance for a long time.

So DXY can get to the upper band of the channel easily as the main resistance has just broken last week.
Now let's look at Japanese Yields. This markets is almost the same as US 10 years yields. It has been falling since 2006 and just like US10Y Turned around since Brexit and has been consolidating all 2017 and 2018.

If I zoom in you see how just a few weeks ago it broke the consolidation area an found the upper band of the wedge a a support and just last week it made a very clear breakout.

Also see Japanese Bonds. Last week it continued going lower and it made another fresh new record low.

What we can expect from JP10Y and JP10 is that YEN will be depreciating soon but we we have seen over the last week was exactly an opposite thing.
This is YEN Weighted average (Monthly) all-time.

In the above chart see how all 2018 it has been trying to go higher but it could not.
Looking at the weekly TF see how it bounced last week, although the expectation (based on Bonds and Yields) has been for this market to go lower.

It has now a falling trend line (red line) acting as a resistance and EMAs and a parallel of the Modified Pitchfork as resistance. A bit of hard work if it wants to go higher.
But now let’s look at the Daily.

I was expecting this to be a bearish market last week. You can just ignore the last 5 candles and that could have been a very bearish market. But later in the week US equities on THU and FRI were falling and that caused YEN to gain a bit.
For instance see SPX and also see how it is visiting the support now.

This is Nasdaq.

The lower the US equities go the higher YEN goes.
This is 4 hrs YEN weighted average and I think the upper band of the channel is a good spot to see YEN pulls back.

Reasons that I believe YEN is like to pullsback: 1) JP10Y is on a record high after a long time 2) JP10 is at all-time record low. 3) US10Y and 4) US10 made massive breakouts 4) SPX is sitting at a support.
But now let's look the last two key fundamental YEN related charts. 1) NIKKEI 2) GOLD
First this is Nikkei futures and see how it SEP it make a clear breakout of the resistance

Going into the weekly Time Frame we finished the first week of OCT with a shooting star which is not that good for YEN bears. but again that happened on THU and FRI followed buy US equities sell off.

Going to the daily Time Frame Nikkei is likely to bounce here too as it reached the rising trend line and EMAs.

so not encouraging for YEN bears but a bullish market on Nikkei on early next week is what we need of YEN to fall.
People think Gold cannot fall anymore and indeed it can if we see Dollar rising and Yen falling. In fact YEN and GOLD are positively correlated. Here is the weekly Gold .

Here you can see the correlation between YEN and GOLD and see how this correlation lost for the last couple of months. GOLD falling but not YEN. All bonds and Yields suggest YEN should fall too. If YEN falling and USD rising then we can see 1100 on GOLD .

This is USDJPY and see how this chart on weekly looks like US10Y and JP10Y . Breakout and then upper band of the wedge acts as a support and then continuation higher.

This is JP10Y vs USDJPY . See how USDJPY was supposed to be a very bullish market at the breakout time.

Plus I do not the look of the last candle to go long USDJPY and I am going to wait for a bullish signal on a shorter Time Frame to go Long.
113.188 we have a strong support there plus that is where it visits the EMAs again. It might offer a good opportunity to go Long.



Please do not forget o LIKE it if you found it useful.
KHAN
Comment: Just entered into this trade ...!
Comment: USDJPY is getting closer to the massive upside breakout that we discussed 3 weeks ago ...
Nikkei, JP10, JP10Y and US Stocks confirm this move ..
Thank you. Excellent information
Reply
@ELKOLET, I am glad that found it useful, Thanks
Reply
ELKOLET khansalarehsan
@khansalarehsan, just joined the forum and will be following currency streams. Regards
Reply
Good one Khan sir, good luck, will keep an eye on it. thanks.
Reply
EN English (UK)
EN English
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out