USDJPY - Potential Short on the 4H

On the 4H chart we can see that price is hovering and testing the 23.60 Fibonacci retracement. Price has broken the trend line that began on the 02/04/2020 but only just. Therefore, if we see a rejection of the 23.60 Fibonacci retracement then I would personally consider entering a short position.

I have drawn two sets of trend lines, these are dotted as they only have two contact points each making them only tentative trend lines. Three points of contact are required to confirm each trend line which we may see in the coming days.

The first target would be the 38.20 Fibonacci retracement @ 107.567 and the second target would be the daily support @ 107. The 50 Fibonacci retracement is a good possibility but wont be covered in this analysis.

This analysis is more of a technical than a fundamental analysis.

Position Details:
- Entry @ 108.9-109.2
- SL @ 109.7
- TP 1 @ 107.6
- TP 2 @ 107

Trade active:

Entered @ 108.990

SL moved to BE

Currently 10+ pips in profit.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Closed at BE. Stop was too tight (placed at 108.960) and moved too soon as the market has since retreated.

Being overly cautious can knock you out of potentially good positions so it's good to balance this with not only BE but also considerations to key levels.

My entry into this short was too soon and the market took me out due to my entry.

Patience. Always. Pays.

Comment:

3 pips profit total.

Comment:

Re-entered a short for an intra-day trade @ 109.03 and exited @ 108.801 for a 23 pip profit.

Total from this trade setup = 26 pips.

Comment:

Trade closed: target reached