The pattern formed in July is now being
accompanied by a pattern. I have posted
an analysis earlier based only the pattern, but seeing
that a pattern has formed it reinforced my
At the moment price is running the risk of forming a
above - in fact it already has considering last
Friday's high reached the close level from July at 112.871
- though I say 'risk of forming' in that if price closes above
113.176 it would negate a .
This past weeks rally could be, and in all likelihood
was, a response to this coming Wednesday's FOMC interest
rate decision. It is of course best in regard to that news
to stay out of this market, at least if considering a long
term buy/ sell and hold trade.
The key levels to look out for the end of this coming week
are the 111.700 intermediate support and the 113.176
. A close below 111.700 would signal a
likely retest of the 109.774 level, and a break below there
would target the 108.128 level and eventually perhaps
even complete the pattern, thus, reaching
the 104.629 levels.
At this stage in time it is difficult to predict which way
price will go for certain, though despite the vast interest
rate differential between the USD and JPY some analysts
have predicted price as low 104.000 by the end of this
year since all the rate hikes have already been priced in
and other nations, too, are preparing to eventually start
tapering their low or zero percent interest rates.
I will post a second USD/JPY analysis after this one
highlighting the case for a break out and
Trade setup 1 ( RvR ratio 2.06)
Entry: Close below 111.900
T/P 1: 109.774
Trade setup 2 ( RvR ratio 4.25)
Entry: Close below 109.535
T/P 2: 108.128
T/P 3: 104.629
As always, scale out your profits and adjust your stop/ loss
to suit your personal risk management profile.