SnB92
Long

Long shout on the USDJPY

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
46 0 0
This is my first trade idea, I'm looking at a potential buy on the Dollar/Yen, based upon the narrowing range of the pair between the 78.6% and 100% Fib levels on the shorter-term trend drawn here. Looks like a break above 104 with potential sight on the 106.5 level (the 161.8% Fib), next resistance is the 23.6% Fib of the longer downtrend (in grey). Stop/Loss would be best at the 102.5 pricing level, moving to the 78.6% Fib (103.2) once the first target is broken at ~104. I've already got a modest 29 pips on this one (opened about an hour ago).

As I said, I'm pretty new to this having spent about two years on demo accounts, so any & all feedback is welcome, especially around the fundamentals (I admit I'm pretty much a 100% technical trader). Thanks for looking!
Trade active: 103.9 is providing a major sticking point at the moment - challenges on the 6th, 7th and 11th October failed to break and/or hold above, and again it seems to be holding firm just below that line. Failure to break & hold could potentially scupper my trade.

Interesting that drawing a Fib retracement off 21st July high to the end of the downward move on 2nd August gives you a 50% Fib level at 103.9 exactly...
Trade active: Currently 80 pips up, with plenty of USD events on the calendar for the afternoon/evening (GMT). My stop has moved into a 40pip profit point, so now I can't lose on it I'm going to let it run, see where it goes. I'm looking to hold for the longer term so 105 (the 23.6% Fib of the longer grey retracement) is the next target to aim for. If it breaks that I expect the next range to have support at 105, and if so I've got at least 100 pips from it - I live in hope!
Trade closed: stop reached: So, last night it looked like the momentum was well and truly lost on the upward move, so I changed the fixed stop to a trailing one and left the position to run overnight. It closed on +70 pips, which I'm very happy with.

Now the action is back under 104 again, there may be another attempt to break 104, or the price may fall down again. I reckon a weekly close above 104 will pave the way for the break upwards again, until I see a sign of that it's time to sit back and see where the price goes next.
Trade active: Ok, the move towards 105 looks to be on again after a corrective move downwards. I made a reasonable enough 70 pips on the last move, I think this is a possible breakout toward that level... The level of concern for this position is about 103.5 (stop around 103.48); given a break above 104.5-104.6 I'll move the stop to the 104.05 level (the 100% Fib expansion) and see where it goes from there.
Trade closed manually: Called time on the trade - my entry point wasn't ideal and the price seems to be struggling to break through. Not quite the move I was hoping for; price is just oscillating around the trend support, RSI looks fairly middling and MACD is a bit inconclusive. I reckon that being the close of the week the momentum just isn't there.

In the end, I made a not-very-exciting 8 pips out of it. To be honest I think my best course of action is to see how it opens at the start of next week, and line-up an entry order before markets close this evening.
Trade closed manually: So, another quick trade made on the USD/JPY over the weekend, taking a small 11 pip profit on a Sell to add to the 8 from a Buy on Friday - taking advantage of the oscillations at the quiet end of the week to just steal a few pips here-and-there. I'm now waiting for the next indicator to come up - my gut still says Long, just waiting to see how it goes from here.
Comment: Looks like a new range is forming between the 78.6% and 100% Fib levels marked on the chart. There is a strong possibility that one key event is keeping things from making a sharp move in either direction - and that is the US election in November. The markets are perhaps uncertain which way the US is going to vote and this could well be holding the brakes on the USD pairs. Based upon the charts, a long at 103.2, aiming for 104 with a tight Stop of 103.1 could be on the cards. Either way, having a clear desk would be advisable for the more risk-averse trader come November 8th.
Comment: My last comment on this idea: I'm happy to say I was right - the post-election USD strength plays out. I did not trade it, simply because the risk was too high to justify the stress of waiting for the result, although the rewards were epic. Now, it just remains to wait for the 1st correction of this move, see where the higher-low falls and buy into the trend. Meanwhile, I'll be turning my attention to other things waiting for a good setup here.
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