HelenRush

USD: Inflation Is Answer

FX_IDC:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
The dollar got up on the wrong side of the bed. Its last chance is the CPI release.
Let’s be honest: even the positive data could hardly help USD to move to the green zone this week. It is not surprising. Trump’s tax reform has proven to be just a distraction, as expected. And the mystery around the next Fed Chair has also disappointed the USD bulls.
Although Nikkei hit a 2-decade high, JPY leads in the markets. USD/JPY touched its daily highs just above its open level at 112.30 and started moving lower. The current low is at the 111.85 area but the key support at 112.00 is still a challenge for JPY, as the breakout is not confirmed.
The pair may test 111.50, especially, if the USD CPI data disappoints the traders. Otherwise, the buck may struggle for this Wednesday highs at 112.50.
The low inflation therein lies the rub. That is why some FOMC members may hesitate over a choice on December’s meeting. Yesterday’s PPI data was fine, but CPI report may bring some surprises. Especially, considering the tough weather conditions in September.
Perfect insight, thanks. TP 111.4 - 111.0
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