Fundamentally, unconfirmed transactions continues to dip below 80000 though the average confirmation time is still high. It points to a changing picture, whereas before net selling was occurring, change is taking place. Net buying may start to occur if the network congestion continues to fall.
I'm buying now now with very tight stops and I will also buy when the 10 and 20 day moving averages cross. Also buying could occur when price breaks 13000 resistance. The two next major resistance areas will be at the red bands marked Resistance 2 and Resistance 3. These should also be take profit levels. There is still a chance that the price will continue to move past these levels, but because so much hyped buying occurred at the tops from 17000 to 20000 that many will sell to recoup potential losses, so I see a fight to pass these highs again.
My stops are just below 10000 and 9000. I will move my stops to entry when price is close to the first (red line marked 'Resistance').
Connected to this analysis is the longer term analysis here: