USDJPY rally stalls amid trade war escalation

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY soared to highest since May on Wednesday amid a broad-based rally in risky assets fueled by positive comments from the trade front. The greenback rallied to 109.60 but the bulls were stirred by the 100- and 200-SMAs in the weekly charts. Early on Thursday, the pair shifted into a correction mode as risk appetite wanes across the board. Still, the prices stay above the 109.00 handle and remains decently higher in the weekly timeframes.

The sentiment in the global markets turned sour after Trump signed two US bills supporting Hong Kong's pro-democracy protesters. In turn, China foreign ministry said that the bills to be met with strong countermeasures. So far, there are no details on how Beijing may retaliate but it still looks like Trump’s signing of the bills will not derail a phase one trade deal, otherwise financial markets will see an aggressive sell-off across the board.

For now, risk aversion is fairly moderate, which is seen in a subdued demand for the yen and gold . Depending on further developments, USDJPY may get back below the 109.00 handle should investor sentiment deteriorate further. On the downside, the 200-DMA at 108.90 now serves as the immediate support. As long as the pair remains above this area, bearish risks are limited. Of note, US markets are closed today in observance of Thanksgiving. As such, the volatility could pick up during the day amid thin trading volumes.


Hi Helen,
Firstly, thank you for the very detailed analysis. What do you predict will happen to the price of this pair?
Will we see a fierce bearish movement? Or will we continue on the bullish trend for a little while?
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