DanV
Long

USDJPY - Continue Bullish to 100 level

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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3
Recently the representative of the Ministry of Finance has publicly stated that they need to show to the world that they are serious about doing whatever necessary to fight the deflation or something to that effect. In their view this would be seen as successful by JPN225 reaching 13,000 or so. That would have been about 13% higher than where it was when they made the comment few weeks ago. USDJPY has close, positive, correlation to JPN225 . Consequently USDJPY will continue higher for foreseeable future. From the chart perspective, the current cycle started from Mid Sept 2012 low and we are in the final part of wave 3 and waves 4 and 5 to follow. This could easily take USDJPY to 100 level as possible psychological BIG round level as well as it is also 50% retracement area of the drop from June 2007 to 2011 low. as I have shown on the chart we have progressed half way up to the target from recent low at 90.78 area. the actual path of the price action necessarily only general indication but more importantly possible swings to complete the cycle. I will update the chart as required when we have more price data to identify possible intermediate top or clarify the wave counts but continue to remain bullish in general

Comments

This chart more than made up to the expected 100 level and still has some potential to the upside on completion of the current retracement will re-publish updated chart
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Since publishing the chart, we have come withing a whisker of the elusive 100 target and appear to have an intermediate top and are now probably re tracing abc move to the downside to 92 area for next higher low from which new up leg could develop. So any wishing to short could consider possible trade on pull back to enter short at slightly higher level with appropriate money management and position sizing.
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