USDHUF - Where is the buy zone? Long if you see some more dip!
Daily: Ichimoku setup is bullish - Price is above Kumo, T/K up, future Kumo bullish. The only missing part is Chikou Span to come over the cloud too. Also Senkou B (orange line of the Kumo) is flat both actually and in the future. This often attracts the price, so looking at 4 Hrs setup too, it is not impossible that we may see this swing down to ard 222 level. Slow Stoch and MACD also bearish on daily chart, which means the USD correction will affect USDHUF further as well.
Yesterday I got a call from one of my friends, who really shocked me with an information. He had to price a 5 year USDHUF forward (and/or 5 yr ccy swap). Guess how much is the fwd points for five years! It is ard 290-300, so basically that means 3 big fig is the "cost of carry"... lt me say again, for 5 YEARS! No more comments. It costs nothing any more to short HUF. And this is just one small piece of the puzzle, besides ultra loose monetary policy and the fiscal policy of the country which is defenately for the weak HUF. Sooner or later HUF will blow up.
By the way there's NBH rate setting today... again... 10 bps cut is likely, meanwhile Hungarian base rate is already below Polish. This alone doesn't mean anything, you can set a base rate anywhere, but then again something is wrong in the formula, so risk premium should be priced somewhere. My view is that it should be reflected in the FX.
So let's hope for more correction and then go for the buy side.
Support level is 221,50 - 222,50 area. I enter a price alert sub 223 and will re-check the tech setup again.
Yesterday I got a call from one of my friends, who really shocked me with an information. He had to price a 5 year USDHUF forward (and/or 5 yr ccy swap). Guess how much is the fwd points for five years! It is ard 290-300, so basically that means 3 big fig is the "cost of carry"... lt me say again, for 5 YEARS! No more comments. It costs nothing any more to short HUF. And this is just one small piece of the puzzle, besides ultra loose monetary policy and the fiscal policy of the country which is defenately for the weak HUF. Sooner or later HUF will blow up.
By the way there's NBH rate setting today... again... 10 bps cut is likely, meanwhile Hungarian base rate is already below Polish. This alone doesn't mean anything, you can set a base rate anywhere, but then again something is wrong in the formula, so risk premium should be priced somewhere. My view is that it should be reflected in the FX.
So let's hope for more correction and then go for the buy side.
Support level is 221,50 - 222,50 area. I enter a price alert sub 223 and will re-check the tech setup again.
