Euro is Ready to Jump

FX_IDC:USDEUR   U.S. Dollar / Euro
EURUSD is in wait-and-see mode after US retail sales release, and is ready to make a breakthrough.
It’s not the data that matters. It’s all about the reaction of the asset. And the USD behavior speaks itself. The significantly better than expected retail sales data (0.6% mom vs 0.4%) coupled with sharp rise of Empire State Manufacturing PMI were not able to trigger broad base long term rally on USD.
What does it mean? It means market doesn’t think that single positive report may be enough to convince the FOMC to switch to a more hawkish stance on monetary policy .
Today the market will focus on FOMC minutes. The statement most probably won’t show anything surprising, and it will be enough to disappoint the market, triggering USD selloff.
That’s what EURUSD needs to show strong rally. The nearest target may be seen at 1.1790 followed by 1.1850.
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