HelenRush

Game Not Over For Euro

FX_IDC:USDEUR   U.S. Dollar / Euro
EURUSD is in market’s focus again. Weak Non-Farm Payrolls data from the USA made a favorable environment for the pair move higher. If it were not for the ECB, that came out 10 minutes after the NFP release with comments on QE .
This is how it happened. The number of new jobs grew only 156K vs 180K, employment inflation was tiny 0.1% higher coupled with downward revision of previous number to 0.1% from 0.3%. The unemployment rate rose higher to 4.4% from 4.3% previously.
It sent EURUSD higher to 1.1979, but not for long, as we saw headlines hinting the ECB was not ready to make a decision on next year’s QE program until December. It means, neither September, nor October meeting will bring changes to the monetary policy . And it made euro fall. But note that this negative factor is already priced in. And that’s why we see a potential for further euro appreciation.
If in case with the USA there is obviously weak data, in euro zone case there is a hope and unpredictable factors. Any comment of the ECB official with hints on QE tapering may push the pair higher. And it means the current levels are not that bad for buying.
The next target for EURUSD may stay at 1.1970 followed by 1.2030.
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