USDCAD Downtrend Continues?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Recent events in the Middle East have helped to raise the oil price. This has been good for the CAD, and helped to drive this pair lower. Future events could push oil higher still, helping to send this pair even lower.

Technically we have three things happening that might, just might, add up to some confluence:
  • The price is approaching what was a support zone , that might possibly act as resistance.
  • The price is reaching the upper limit of the Bollinger band .
  • Stochastic is reaching into overbought territory.

The one thing that makes me a little suspicious is the fact that this current retracement higher has already eaten around half of the previous leg lower, meaning the downward momentum might be fading, or we could be about to enter a new leg higher.

I'm trading this with a sell limit order to trigger if the price falls below 1.27096, with a stop at 1.27430. Limit trigger price is somewhat close to the current price action, so there is a risk of an errant trigger and stop out. Target is arbitrarily set to offer a 1:2 RR. Actual target may vary depending on what happens in the real world.
Trade closed: stop reached: US PPI number caused a large gyration that triggered the limit order and then stopped me out.

I have re-entered the position with a market order, screenshot below.

Comment: Another screenshot.
Trade closed manually: This one didn't work out. Back to the charts!
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