JackLesko
Short

USDCAD - Potential Short Swing Trade

FOREXCOM:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
On the daily chart we can see a recent clear rejection of the 1.47 previous high back in January 2016. I have draw a Fibonacci retracement from the 2017 low to the recent high. I have also extended these levels back to 2016 as previous price action abides by these levels historically.

I'm basing this short on a mixture of technical and fundamental analysis . The technical analysis resides around the failed attempt to break through the 1.47 resistance and a possible descending channel occurring on the 4H chart (chart below). The fundamentals of this trade reside on the price of Oil , it had surged 30% throughout w/c 30/03/2020 following lows not seen since the late 1980's/early 1990's. As Canada is the 4th largest producer of Oil in the world, the price of Oil has an impact on the value of the CAD. With a higher Oil price, the CAD becomes stronger.

I would like to see another bounce off this descending channel before I enter this short. This is largely due to the fact that the more times a channel/ trend line is tested, the more valid it becomes. The channel/ trend line could certainly be broken and we could see a second push to the upside towards 1.47.

I'm targeting just above the 38.20 fib level for this short where previous resistance now turned support is.

This is a swing trade as follows:
- Entry @ 1.395-1.402
- SL @ 1.44
- TP @ 1.37

R:R - 2.5
Comment: This chart also shows minor support (price interest) around the 1.39-1.40 range:

Comment: ***Error with the entry, see the below for the correct details***

- Entry @ 1.415-1.422
- SL @ 1.44
- TP @ 1.37
Trade active: Entered @ 1.42312
Comment: Top of the trend line rejected (confirmation upon daily close below this level. Awaiting break of structure within the channel for a further decline:

Trade closed manually: Took profit @ 1.41298 (101 pips). I would like to see a clean break of this structure before a possible re-entry. Symmetrical triangles could go either way...

Good profits wont wait forever. Don't be greedy!
Comment: Still within the structure and there is a somewhat strong buy zone within the 1.14128-1.1408 area. This could really go either way from here further confirming the reason for my exit of this trade and taking profits whilst they were there. The risk is too great with this trade currently hence the wait for confirmation. Learning to not be bias is difficult but shifting mentality to current market sentiment/conditions whilst within a trade is a key skill:

Comment: We broke through the inter-channel trend line today, executing the plan nicely. We are now seeing a nice bounce from the 1.395 intra-day support on the 4H chart:

Comment: TP in 85 pips, took longer to mature than anticipated:

Trade closed: target reached:

Comments

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