If equities go south in your time frame, the Dollar will come under bullish pressure (but no guarantee it will go north). If the dollar continues it's slide south, then your other projections on the S&P500 heading north is likely.
There is a problem with equities which can backfire into forex. The US equity market is 200% overvalued against GDP. Yes - we know that in the Japanese situation GDP did not matter. But i don't know if that will be the same for American equities on which other markets draw strength. Then their is debt to GDP ratios which are also crazy in America at this time.
GDP could improve if vaccines work as expected. That would increase demand for the Dollar push price north. I don't really get much into 'fundamentals' because I don't have any truly good data.
What I can say is that the tensions and instabilities are rising again - even if not seen. A similar picture was present before the COVID correction of equities back in first quarter of 2020. Of course, everybody assumed that COVID cause the 'crash'. It may well have masked what was due anyway, and made it worse.
This time around, the equity markets are re-inflated. Some may not understand why I focus on equities. But it is well known that equities affect USD, AUD, JPY, CAD and GBP significantly.
Dollar strength could be good for the bond market. At least investors will feel better that they're not going to be paid, in devalued currency (due to effects of QE). So in an alternative scenario, equities go south, dollar goes north and bonds go north. I can't begin to imagine when that might happen - and I'm making no predictions here.
I'm totally open to being corrected on the above speculations, or alternative perspectives.
Double dip recession - moving into an economic depression? 😮😉