I was analysing the AMC/BMC break-out structure again this morning as something wasn't quite right with my wave-count. The nested series of W1+W2s just didn't seem to have the right rule conformity internally so I decided to dig into my Elliott wave books for some insight. I found it!
I don't believe this was ever a sequence of nested Base channels but rather a (somewhat rare) leading expanding diagonal (see illustration). In terms of internal structure this is composed of ABC (3 wave) corrections which explains the lack of coherent internal 5s. It also fits nicely the common retracement levels for this class of wave and the overall structure retraces to a perfect 61.8.
In conclusion, even though my preferred wave-count has now changed the overall forecast is still strongly bullish as this remains a motive wave albeit one instead of three. Also, the moves made by some of the early cycle alts over the last few days (XRP, XLM etc) are indicative of a developing larger W3 imho. The implications for invalidation have changed however: this structure is valid all the way down to a level of 0.36955 instead of the previous ~0.45 which has implications for risk management.
I don't believe this was ever a sequence of nested Base channels but rather a (somewhat rare) leading expanding diagonal (see illustration). In terms of internal structure this is composed of ABC (3 wave) corrections which explains the lack of coherent internal 5s. It also fits nicely the common retracement levels for this class of wave and the overall structure retraces to a perfect 61.8.
In conclusion, even though my preferred wave-count has now changed the overall forecast is still strongly bullish as this remains a motive wave albeit one instead of three. Also, the moves made by some of the early cycle alts over the last few days (XRP, XLM etc) are indicative of a developing larger W3 imho. The implications for invalidation have changed however: this structure is valid all the way down to a level of 0.36955 instead of the previous ~0.45 which has implications for risk management.