TLW Chart Update

TLW has been respecting the drawn trend lines to the tee...IMO.
It keeps getting rejected at the major resistance of 33.4 (thereabouts) and sometimes crosses only to come back below. However the probablity of it crossing and staying above it is high, so those who are willing to take an early punt then it's a good time to BUY.
However I'm more on the cautious side and will wait till it crosses the 40 and price action stays above support.

TP levels: 50, 63, 67, 79

Comment:

The black line represents Weekly TF.
On another chart I have extended this to Oct 2021 and if the SP continues along this trend line and closes the GAP, then I would see a SP of 130-135. This would be my TP level. As the long term trend (Monthly) is still down, and with markets showing signs of weakness over this time period I am cautious to hold for any longer or open any new positions.
The pattern the SP has shown is that it rises to the previous resistance then falls again to it's ATL or evevn lower. That's not to say it willl do it this time but you never know as TLW is not in a healthy position with it's debt and credit rating.

Comment:

SP has still stayed below the major resistance line (Blue) and has also crossed below the weekly TF (Black). It remains to be seen if it will rise to be rejected at the weekly or cross and stay above.
Good opportunities to top up and lower your average, however I'm still cautious on the viability of TLW with it's commitments to raise cash from asset sales and lower expenditure.

SUPPORT1 = 26.40p
SUPPORT2 = 24.50p

Comment:

If the SP crosses SUPPORT2 it now becomes Resistance (R1). A number of scenarios could play out after that.

1. cross back over to become support then make its way back up
2. cross back over then back down again (dead cat bounce)
3. attempt to cross over but get rejected (this could happen a number of times) before it either crosses over R1
4. attempt to cross over but get rejected a number fo times but then fall further down to SUPPORT3 (20.34 and probably lower to 16.11, 12.45)

Volume just doesn't support market sentiment to BUY at this moment.

Comment:

H&S forming
Depending on how you measure:
- from the head to the shoulder = 13.90
- or from the head to the neckline = 9.85

Comment:

SP hit 13.4 so target was reached if you opened a SHORT position.

Currently the SP is between the 0.786 -0.618 of the Fib tracement. Who knows where it will go from here.
For me I'm looking for the SP to go above the 0.5 of the Fib line for it to make a higher low to even consider opening a Long. Price action I would like to see a close above 20p to then retest the resistance of 19.4 and get rejected to then go above the 22p to start looking at Long entries.