timwest

Cycles in Bonds and Stocks

BATS:TLT   Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
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This is an exact chart, updated from 11 months ago to show the cycles in Bonds ( TLT , 20 year US Treasury) and stocks ( SPY , S&P500 Index stock market basket).

I added the last two areas to highlight the cycles available to adjust a portfolio to the waves in demand for growth or stagnation, inflation or deflation.

The market votes with price action and we have to interpret the price action to determine what the market participants are saying. You can see there is a very clear pattern.

What this doesn't show, of course, is how much of either asset to hold in an "ideal" portfolio. Only that you can see capital flowing from one market into the other over time.

The sharp breakdown in the bond market (10%) is a meaningful sign and most likely will be the headline story for the next few weeks.

My suggestion is to use momentum indicators to see when this decline in bonds stabilizes in order to consider adding positions back that were sold after momentum turned down in the past 5 weeks. Use a 5-week rate of change as the momentum indicator and wait for it to come back to "0" to buy any bonds.
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Critical Trigger Tomorrow
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Thank you very much for the update.
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Followed.
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Agreed.
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Followed.
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Agreed.
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Followed.
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Agreed.
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Great post Tim. Thanks, it reflects perfectly the cycles. Good job!!!
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Followed.
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