S&P 500: May You Live In Interesting Times

The SPXUSD (the perpetual contract of the SP 500) is somewhat of an indicator for domestic US investor sentiment. In comparison, I consider the DJIA to be an indicator of foreign capital flows to the US.

The US appears to be triggered by the nomination of a Supreme Court judge, or rather, the slander and innuendo associated with the nomination... and despite all the howling and nashing of teeth, the S&P500 goes nowhere but up, for slander and innuendo cannot be traded.

I mention this because US political instability is a fundamental headwind. The Supreme Court nomination is a flashpoint that reveals the deep polarization, unfocused discontent, and indoctrination in the US. Meaning, if Kavanaugh is appointed, investor sentiment will be maintained, as it represents a win for Trump, and a win for Trump is a win for business. But, a lot of people will not accept this nomination, and it will only deepen political contention. Any threat to Trump may impact the markets negatively.

But for now, the markets are optimistic. Was today the dip to buy? It was trendline and horizontal confluence. I would like to see the lower parallels tested for an even better buy entry.

As traders, the best we can do is do what needs to be done, when it needs to be done. In a bull market, that means buying the dip. If the lower parallel is taken out on a closing basis, I will naturally readjust. For now, no damage has been done.

I find it troubling that daily, weekly and monthly stock/ rsi are flashing bearish divergence. Bear div can always be negated, but this needs to be monitored.

In short, stay long. Buy dips. Re-adjust if levels are taken out to the downside.


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