Thanks for the post. I agree with you. I would expect the collapse from higher (4537usd level)
On US Dollar, I saw the recent early indication of a trend developing north, so yes stock indices have stepped back a bit but not significant at this time. Even Gold and Bitcoin have taken a pause as the Dollar strength increases. What happens next with the dollar is a guessing game, cuz I don't own the future. The issue I wonder about is whether the dollar slide will continue or for how long.
My theory is that Bitcoin and stocks have become a hedge against the sliding Dollar.
The other issue is what I call a 'horizon effect' - that beyond which we cannot see. But there are some worrying projections beyond the horizon. Firstly the only thing this market fears is 'the virus'. Each news report of a new vaccine approval saw markets pumping north, as fear of the virus dissipated. The basic assumptions is that vaccines will save the world. That lead the gamblers to look beyond jobs reports, GDP and everything else.
Of course, one does not need to be a vaccine expert to know that whilst vaccines work on individual people, it may not solve the deep economic problems underlying forex and stock markets. Yes - vaccines weren't designed for solve economic issues but gamblers have been treating it in that way (from what I see).
I'll deviate a bit to focus on the UK approach to the virus. Basically the assumption is that vaccinating 14 million people in the over 50s age-groups by March 2021 will do the country great good. Nobody - I mean nobody - except me, has considered that the over 50s in the UK (some 25 million) were the most isolated and sensible people. They were not majorly spreading virus. It was the under 40s. There is no parallel tract to vaccinating the younger people who are most likely to spread virus. Nobody has therefore considered the 'unthinkable' that yet another more transmissible set of strains could emerge by March-April 2021. In other words scientists and ordinary people consider the virus as a static entity, when it fact it is 'fluid', dynamic and evolving. History has recorded that governments and scientific advisers have been lagging and that they have underestimated the virus.
While all that is happening, the current three or four main mutations of the virus lead countries to lockdown and self-isolate from other economies. That's no good for trade and the generation of GDP. Something is out of whack. Central banks are not the solution to GDP or unemployment (still rising but delayed in the figures we see). Our economic system cannot just forget about GDP and jobs (not that anyone suggested so).
Overall, I see economies burning down while stock markets are pumping north. There is a fundamental disconnect. I don't know when the next big correction will be. It could start tomorrow or in months as your chart shows.
Whilst 4520 at end of March 2021 might seem improbable to me now, I have deep respect for your methodology after your Tesla position.
However, sentiment is always reigned in by reality. There is some real harsh reality coming. The question is how long can sentiment prevail? I wouldn't know. For me it's not about picking a price point, cuz I only aim to find a decent trend on a 15 to 30 min time frame in any direction, encased in a 4H trend.
The US stock markets are pumped up on the hot air of some $120 Trillion. That's largely about hedging against a crashing Dollar and gamblers betting on some utopia beyond COVID, that they absolutely cannot know about. In addition much of this is driven by algos, that don't care about value in the long term.
Whilst anything is possible where sentiment reigns, the big issue is will sentiment prevail into March to April 2021. Over Feb to April 2021, the true economic picture is likely to unfold for the USA. Nothing prevents the algos from short-selling - they'll make money both ways.