The problem for the S&P500 is not just what's on home soil. The S&P is part of a big global network of stock markets which influence each other. Emerging markets have been hammered, dragging US-based stocks south. The MSCI-ACWI index is a sound reference point for that.
Then there is the problem of US National Debt at $22 Trillon and peaking at an unprecedented 105% of GDP. Global debt affecting world economies is approximately $250 Trillion. Whilst some may wish for a micacles - which is fine - miracles are actually rare. The Fed could certainly print loadsah money, but for obvious reasons that's no solution. They've been 'printing' like crazy since the 1970s (unrestrained by absense of the gold-standard). Interest rates have been kept at ridiculously low rates for the last 10 years, which is how the whole mess came about. So really, the miracle would be like wishing away US and global debt. There is a thing called 'reality' and it's a very hard place (not that anyone suggested otherwise).
I therefore see no sound evidence anywhere for a 'theory' - or assumption - that would lead to an expectation of a huge bounce off 2560, in the projected time frame. But a bounce off 2560 would be expected because it is a key support area. Just to be clear, I am not a fundamental analyst (or even a financial analyst). I'm a 'common sense' analyst. :)) And common sense built on hard evidence, says that something cannot be created out of nothing, except in fiction. The S&P has been largely built on 'air' (aka debt, as per leverage).
The trouble with evidence is several fold:
1. It can be ignored.
3. Considered as fake news.
4. Its bearer labelled so as to make it insignificant etc.
5. It is easily replaced by hopes and dreams.
On two main fronts the S&P500 is in deep trouble:
1. The technical picture is a down trend on weekly to 6H timeframes. .
2.Globally acroeconomic and geopolitical tensions are rising. The IMF has issued warnings on the impact.
What's likely to push the S&P north? Nothing I can find, of any substance. Of course, collective greed and hope could well do the job. :)
With the S&P I look at the ridiculous picture of debt and the common sense that something cannot be built on nothing - alias Ponzi schemes. The economic data may well be considered as fundamentals by many. However, I'm not using that data to predict anything because I have no methodology relevant to 'fundamentals' to make any 'prediction' - and as you know I don't make predictions.
I've looked at the debt picture and other macroeconomic data only to inform my common sense. ;)