The exchange rate is currently in the correction phase. We expect a further 10% downward movement from the current level. However, in the longer term, a repeat increase is expected. Initially with stronger volatility. The exchange rate correction level may be around 2560usd. In practice, we expect this second test. If the theory is correct, assuming an initial higher volatility, a multi-month sustained increase is assumed. Up to 54% of the 2560usd correction level is used to select our long-term target price.
Comment:
The SPX500 would have to cut 2.87% from the current level and start taking long positions.