For every probability estimate in one direction - NOTE CAREFULLY - that there is a residual probability in the opposite direction. So if for example one thinks there is a 60% chance for the south, then there is a 40% chance for the north. I am not saying the S&P500 has a 60% chance of falling south from the kill zone shown. The best I could do is 51% - which means 49% chance (in my mind only) that it'll bust north.
I always make potential losses very prominent in my posts.
Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Sometimes (no guarantees) when a market is stalling we see the bulls fighting like hell, driven by greed against the bears in one massive fight. But stock indices have also done this when they are about to pump north unexpectedly (I'm talking lower time frames - which are safer to 'play' in terms of losses).
A simple 1 min to 5 min ATR trend line (microtrends) is not a bad idea. These can run from hours to a couple days. See below: