alanmasters
Short

S&P 500 Index Crash (Final Warning)

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
I've been warning my dear followers and cryptocurrency lovers about the S&P 500 Index crash for a long time.

For conventional minds, it is really hard to grasp the fact that the SPX will crash massively and become ugly due to all the lies and hype spread through the conventional media news systems, but charts do not lie.

Reading charts is like looking at a foreign language, it might be hard to understand if you don't know it, but if you know it, it is basically the same as your own native language.

This chart here is speaking to me, to us, and it has lots to say.

First, it keeps on telling us the media is lying about the bullishness of the SPX , we see hype, hype, hype... Yet it can't break the last high.

Second, it gives us clues and shows us things that are not easy to understand if you are not advanced at reading charts; using my indicators, we can see bearish divergence growing stronger every day that goes on.

Finally, bearish volume growing up on a Friday while the EMA10 support broke right away...

Let me tell you honestly... This is my last warning.

The SPX 500 will crash, according to the chart above, no matter what anybody says.

Conditions for change? Move back up, spring up and keep going up all the way... But this isn't really happening since the SPX hasn't been able to break the 2895 resistance for the past 166+ days.

I am sharing this as a friendly reminder, warning, for your learning and entertainment as well... So feel free to hit like if you want to now, and let's focus on making money with our altcoins trades.

This is Alan Masters.

Namaste.
Mar 25
Comment: EMA10 has been broken, next support is sitting at MA200 (black line), this is the next target:
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These last couple of weeks have been insane. I could not imagine reaching a new high again. At this time, we are at the price pointed at by your purple arrow and volume is rather low. I think the purple crash scenario is still on the table.
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"The SPX 500 will crash, according to the chart above, no matter what anybody says."

I can agree with this statement, on the grounds that all stock markets eventually crash. When someone makes a statement of forecast like 'will crash' - without any further qualifiers - it's as good (or bad) as me saying to the person next to me, 'You're going to die'.

Forecasting the weather - by analogy is only useful if people are given an idea of an approximate range of time, and which geographical areas may be affected. Forecasting a market crash is more difficult to get right in terms of time frame or the extent of the crash. The reason for that is that it is unlike the seasonal patterns of weather encapsulated in fairly distinct periods such as winter, spring, summer and autumn.

A complicating factor for so-called predictions of market crashes is the impact of human intervention:
1. The Federal Reserve.
2. The silliness of market participants (people who actually buy and sell shares).
3. Market manipulation by agents of State control e.g. the plunge protection team.

I think the markets have gone psychotic. Part of the reason for that is the corrupt but lawful practice of stock buybacks (supported by the Fed - the friend of the people, I'm told).
Technical analysis is a tool for tracking the moves of human sentiment. Fundamental analysis I see as closer to the reality of factors affecting markets. Technical pictures around now, are totally divorced from reality of anything that justifies such bullish sentiment. I can't go into all the lack of fundamental bases for this market.

A highly unstable position arises when there is a disconnection from reality. The fantasy - the bubble can pop - the jenga tower can fall - suddenly if disturbed by a seemingly minor event. This is like the 'last straw' that breaks the camels back, sort of thing.

I'm not into predictions. Instead I do pre-predictions. What's that? By way of example, I can foretell that every year between December and February snow is going to fall in England. I can even narrow that down to last two weeks of Jan to first two weeks of February. The reason for the narrow pre-prediction, is that I know when conditions are likely to be better for snow to fall. But the more accurate I try to become about 'on which day' snow will fall, the less I shall be. This is a well known principle borrowed from physics, called the Heisenberg uncertainty principle.

There is so much wrong with the markets that a catastrophic and unexpected crash is likely within the next 12 months. That'll be seen as no great forecast! Why? Because people in general want better than a whole year. If I had said 'within the next 3 months', people would probably be more interested or happier - but I'd more likely to be wrong in trying to be more specific or accurate.

As a trend following trader I have seen that the 6-hourly to 8-hourly trend switches are the main signals for the S&P and the DJI directional changes.
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Warren Buffett has said he can't even predict where the S&P 500 will go. We can only guess based on patterns and trends. As for the drop, It's called a correction and it happens. Stocks go up and they go down. I think it is too high as it is and I think 2650-2700 seems to be a good target.
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@icediesel, while this could be considered a correction, this will technically be a de-leveraging. With the Fed on hold, it will be a bad de-leveraging as we will not have enough slack in lowering interest rates.
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here my analysis on the russ2000 that generally anticipate the other index
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@elionu, Thanks for sharing. I did an analysis once on it, will take a look again.
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elionu alanmasters
@alanmasters, you are welcome
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@elionu, I see the Head and Shoulders using 1 month candles. And the volume decline as well. April 1 things get ugly. This is not advice. I'm just a beginner. Peace

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Deflationary crash
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I can agree more! We should focus on making money with our altcoins! What's your opinion on NAV? There was an insane big volume last week! Take a look on the weekly chart! Maybe you made a post about it and I don't remember?!
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