Bearish bat in the making

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
This is a follow up for my two previous NZDUSD ideas:

We moved lower as expected then got a strong reaction at
the .84 figure, which could be seen as an impulse, but wave 2
and wave x (in complex corrections) are always very strong
because the market has not made up its mind.

In other words, this could very well be a corrective move.
A new high towards .874 and the a break below .8550 would
give us some conformation that we are going below .84

The alt. view (chart below) would be that the move from
may high was a complex correction. A break above .8780
would put the alt. view in play.

Follow all my demo trades at
and follow me on twitter for intra-day updates

Good luck!


Well, for what it's worth, I managed a few pips when .8680 was broken and then the retest failed
and blasted off to the upside. Looks like the alternate 3rd wave is in play headed for a 5th.
So, do you suppose we've had a 4th wave flat followed by a 4th wave expanded flat ?
I might try to buy the iv th wave and sell the v th depending on how it plays out and,
of course, some help from the candlesticks. Hope you made a few pips also !
+1 Reply
traderWgun dojitrader
agree, looking more and more like a flat wave 4.
We've been thinking alike ____ I must be getting better !
Was looking at this count yesterday, but, resisted publishing until I looked at the
daily and weekly to try and determine a clue for the strength of the C wave or wave 3
and determine stops since price is so close to the previous top @ .8841 August 2011
wondering if it will become a target. Not sure I have an answer except that risk is well
defined. Guess I'll fall back on the possible help from the candlesticks as I so always do.
Profits to us both !!!!!!
+1 Reply
traderWgun dojitrader
Yes the risk is very limited which is very important when the trend is so strong. The best of luck to you to man!
Analysious traderWgun
Sir, could you explain your confirmation level please?
+1 Reply
traderWgun Analysious
Good question! The conformation level would invailded the alt. count. Wave 4 can not overlap with wave 1, if we complete 3 waves up and then take out wave 1 high, then that comfirms that this move up is not an impulse. It could be a leading diagonal though.
Analysious traderWgun
Clear, thank you so much sir. appreciate it.
Thankful there are alerts today !
I had almost forgotten about this trade as my entry was @ .8736
and price had come so close but not traded through.
Anyway, since we did hit another high I'm thinking wave 4 was a flat
that ended on 6/17 about .8642, but, not sure what to think of price action
since - until we break below .8680
What say you ???
Thanks for your thoughts !!!!!
traderWgun dojitrader
I think so too