Today I've been ask for this analysis, which I think is really interesting, because it presents the end of an outside return (maybe), and also a wall as support ( >> Kijun), but let's start form a Weekly chart so you can understand why I'm talking about the "end of an outside return".
>> Weekly Chart <<
From the last movements I can see a bearish trend in a phase, so an outside return. These last two weeks created two red , so we can ask ourselves if the this correction is ended and if it's time to go short, but two there are two things I don't like that much:
>> Prices didn't correct up to the Kijun Sen, which started to come down because some highs were rejected;
>> Prices didn't correct neither up to Fibonacci 38.2%.
As a consequence I wouldn't go short right now, but I'd wait for a little movement, before the one could start.
Going back to the , these two points I don't like that much are much more visible on this timeframe. First of all we can see the movement is not that clear, at the same time prices haven't corrected up to where I expected ( >> The red resistance), and below us we have a flat Kijun Sen, which is likely to support prices.
On the other side below us we also have a twist, which could "open us the door" for the movement.
In conclusion, I won't go short right now, but let's go on a H4 chart, to see what it tells us.
>> H4 Chart <<
On this timeframe we can see short would be the key, in fact we can see a head and shoulder, with the neckline breakout.
On the other hand, here we can find a twist we could "open us the door" for an uptrend. Anyway the movement is not clear, I can't see any decision from the price.
In conclusion, I don't like this pair neither for a or a movement, so I will wait up to next year to make a decision, but I'd love to see what you think about it.
>> Leave a like if you agree
>> Write in the comments below what you think
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