Can NZDCAD Scalps flip into Swings?

FX:NZDCAD   New Zealand Dollar/Canadian Dollar
As covered in our weekly outlook session with our students. This has the potential to be a scalp that moves into an intra/swing position.

This time frame (4Hr) shows a considerable amount of liquidity just above.
I simply cannot class this current collection of price action as a double top due to the fact that the price did not move into a rejection directly at the top of a trend, it actually moved sideways before it clearly rejected the upper levels, now although this does not invalidate it being a double top , it does (in my opinion) significantly reduce the probability of this playing out as a "textbook double top". Having said that, my bias is still short.

The 15 min view is presenting us with a potential double top , this has indeed rejected directly after the trend move. The neckline for this pattern sits at .898. A break of this level would likely open up a move to .894... what's interesting about this is its the fib targets for the 15 min view double top as well as being the neckline at (what is not but could be viewed as a) double top .

Simply put, a 15 min break of .898 exposes the targets at .894. A break of this level could then easily flip a scalp to a swing and open up .885, however the swing targets will need to be looked at again if we can see a 4Hr close below that .894 level.

If the price can break the upper blue supply zone , then we need to be conscious that the price could easily trace back, grab orders and make its move to the upside, but my view on this is that the upper levels will hold, do there job and we will see this take a move to the downside next week.

Eyes open for both sides of the argument.


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