Firstly some fundamentals. Basic materials have dropped 4.4% in the last month and 5.7% in the last week. In this sector mining has seen a 7.83% drop in the last week and 12.49% in the last month (source finviz and stockcharts.com). This specific stock has performed worse with a weekly drop of 8.23% and 14.02% monthly. This gives an overall picture of weakness at this current point in time for this stock and industry. Going onto the chart I have firstly labelled the possible head and shoulders. Until the neckline is broken though (preferably on heavy volume that breaks the trend-line I've drawn for that) this is not a confirmed pattern. On the head I've drawn a box that incorporates a double top and a tweezer top which also has a bearish engulfing pattern. Below this a gap that doesn't get closed by the second box I've drawn on. This box is interesting in a few ways, firstly there is a moving average crossover of a 20 day MA and a 50 day MA (which is also resistance as the price on that day doesn't hold above the 50 day MA) indicating the short term trend has turned bearish. Another interesting point is that the candle is clearly a shooting star which is confirmed by a small gap down and a strong red candle after. This candle also falls on a crossover of the stochastic oscillator set at 5,3,3 with a neutral rating of 50 on the RSI. Volume has been contracting through the development of the possible head and shoulders and the longer term stochastic has also recently crossed over indicating more downward momentum. The RSI is currently on the support zone for a bull market which has been tested on numerous occasion throughout the bull phase of this move. There was a whipsaw signal given on the previous low which gave us our neckline. The price is currently on the 100 day MA and would be a further bearish signal if it were to break this line. Upon a successful completion of a breakthrough the neckline I would expect to see the following. Firstly the 100 day MA would turn to resistance. Secondly the RSI would drop to below 30 and below the previous low. The longer term stochastic would also drop below the 20 mark which is the lower boundary in that window. The price should drop to the 0.382 Fibonacci level where there is already support. It could then retrace to the neckline/100 day MA. This should give the Stochastic and RSI a chance to come out of the oversold region before the price falls further. The RSI should not exceed 65 on this retracement. The price target for this move, derived by the head and shoulders measuring implications are shown by the vertical line. The 0.5 Fibonacci level is also a good support level very close to the price target. The 200 day MA is also currently within the price zone marked by the rectangle adding another support function. Further bearish signals are lower lows and lower highs (right shoulder), a bearish harami on the 13th of this month, a confluence resistance of 26 at 41.21 (just above the shooting star) with the next strongest support of 6 being at 31.55, we also have a bearish MACD signal not shown on this chart (stockta.com source). Any questions welcome.
Comment:
I forgot to mention that this possible head and shoulders is forming between the weekly 50 and 61.8 retracement levels from the high in December 2011. The 15,5,5 stochastic and the RSI both have bearish implications on the weekly charts. Again there is good support around the (daily) 50 retracement level which were aiming for. The angle of ascent is also very steep in the weekly which is not sustainable in the long term, i feel we should see it fall to 31.55 area and then it could stage a rally that could surpass the 61.8 Fibonacci level and therefore not just be a pull back but a significant change in trend.
Comment:
After a closer look at the weekly I see that the 2011 high was the head of another successfully completed head and shoulders pattern where the price target was met. The right shoulder also retraced to the 50% mark of the down move from the head suggesting this level could have more significance. There are so many things to be said about the weekly head and shoulders from that time that would require an entirely new analysis.