OldManFit
Short

M&S 30-40 day trade - my first published Idea

LSE:MKS   MARKS AND SPENCER GROUP PLC ORD 25P
M&S

Been the back bone of UK retail store fronts for a life time, has been in general decline for the last 15 years. It has many of the features of an attractive short:

legacy, disrupted (not disruptive) business model
shrinking revenues
not much evidence of any economic/competitive moat
low margin
capital intensive
financially geared (financial net debt £1.5 BN , excluding lease liabilities)
With T/O of £10BN and £33M of profit trading on a diminishing margin year on year (half'd in last 2 years to 1.46%).
Presently trading at a forward PE ratio of 10.3, which is 17th (out of 34) for its sector, so still over valued compared to it competitors.

It is like an old horse, needs shooting or putting out to pasture, like many UK retail businesses it hasn't adapted to the changes in the high street.


Reason for Idea

Each year for the last 2 years the share price has dropped 2017 9%, 2018 8% over November December due to poor Christmas trading figures.
There is no reason to not expect the same this year and added on top the increasingly worse trading statements each year.

My trade was:

Entry 190p

Limit 160 (15%)

SL 210 (10%, which the share price hasn't hit since July 2019.)

Comments

Conclusion - I had 3 trades on M&S over the 30 days 2 won and 1 lost, but overall a good profit, my last trade is still active entry was at 226p, though I did panic when the big funds started big-ing up the M&S last quarter results, only to see a jump to 226p+ for a couple of the days.
Though this all proved to be complete tosh, as the T/O was Up but Profits down, hence the decline.

Overall a good couple of trades with some panic after the general election and early January.
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