vlad.adrian

Italy - Thorough divergence study

Short
FX:ITA40   None
6
Please zoom in, chart is messy especially in the indicator area!

Italy has been on a great bull run for half an year now. There were some minor corrections signaled by divergences, but overall nothing serious, the italian index rising about 40% in the last 6 months. I have labeled on the chart the corrections, and as you can see, every move up after the correction stopped at aproximately 127% of the correction. Currently we have the same pattern, the italian index stopping at 127% of the Ukrainian panic correction.

The MACD has given some very nice signals, warning speculators when they should NOT buy. Combining the divergences (either on the MACD lines or on the Histogram) with envelopes (to show over-extended moves) and candle patterns (which I love) the warning sign became clear, DON'T buy at the top, wait for a correction. Considering that we are still in an uptrend, I will assume that a correction will come, not a trend reverseal (allthough as I said on the chart, the divergence is stronger), and if at 20000 points I see a bullish signal, I will enter long on this fantastic uptrend.

For now, my bias is short! A strong gap up on Monday, or a strong up day that will close over the high from thursday will cancel my ideea!

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