arumcapital

Fed’s dovish stance lifts gold

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold is within striking distance of the $1324, trading at fresh eight-month highs on Thursday. The yellow metal is on the rise for a fifth day in a row already. Much of the gains are due to dollar weakness that intensified flowing the FOMC meeting. Powell expressed a more dovish tone and confirmed the central bank’s intention to pause hiking rates.

The increasing political and economic risks make the Federal Reserve take a more cautious approach to monetary policy which is positive for the precious metal due to lower US Treasury yields and the dollar. 

Probably, a more important message from the Fed was that the monetary authorities could end their efforts to reduce the portfolio sooner than expected. The decision on rates and the balance will depend on the incoming economic data, so both the buck and the bullion are going to be more sensitive to signals from the US economy in the month to come. 

Further on, the key focus will be on Friday’s US monthly jobs report. Should the wages and employment numbers come in lower than expected, the selling pressure on the USD could send gold prices to fresh highs. On the other hand, after a spectacular rally, there is a risk of some profit taking ahead of the weekend.
There is popular opinion thrown around in big media that the Fed (aka Powell) was "dovish". I read the press release and listened carefully to Powell especially in the Q&A. https://youtu.be/gbDycD1Xh8w

I'm probably the only person or maybe 1 in 10,000 who don't see anything he said as being 'dovish'. Powell was playing with words. But I focused on how he used his words. Powell appeared to me to be ducking issues left, right and centre with characteristic stock phrases, that committed to nothing of substance. It was like basically 'everything' was part of some consideration - and we'll 'wait and see'. Furthermore the man appeared nervous, sombre and in a state of over-control on his emotions which seemed to run deep. It was as if he was panicking inside.

I don't blame anybody for riding the wave of joy that resulted from what must be a wishful misinterpretation of Powell. The Fed is in a zugswang and trying to stay calm in order to avoid catastrophic or precipitous economic chaos. They'll probably win that prime objective simply because they know how much people live on hope instead of reality. So - they'll continue to play with words, but reality always catches up.

The US-Dollar has been on the down side mostly for the period in which Gold was rising. Nothing surprising in that. However the degree of rise appeared out of proportion to US-Dollar ducking low. I have no evidence, but it is a known fact the Chinese are buying up gold globally and boosting extraction - pouring billions into the latter. So it is also probable that the massive 5-day pump north had something to do with China (in part). Alternatively, and possibly, sensible investors don't care much for the well chosen words of the Fed and are hedging heavily with gold.
Reply
Jefmal93 Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, yes i caught a similar move on Kirkland lakes gold, well done
Reply
EN English (UK)
EN English
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out