This trade idea is formed on the basis that gold
will hit or get near its all time high ( ATH
). The 1800 handle is a huge psychological level, and is reinforced by the resistance it formed in 2011/2012 after gold
hit its ATH
. What I expect is a similar price action and level of volatility
that was witnessed at the 1700 level last week (week commencing 6th
April 2020). As the virus pandemic continues to worsen, with more and more cases and fatalities each day, there will be a general risk-off sentiment. This has been somewhat balanced by the unprecedented QE
aggression from the Fed but until the virus ceases and desists, gold
will be a favoured investment as it has historically been an effective and affordable risk against uncertainty in both the equity markets and oil
Fundamental basis for trade: Risk-off sentiment as the virus continues to do significant damage to the world, predominantly Western economies.
Technical basis for trade: Break of a key level which is both a strong level of resistance and also a major psychological level.
My expectation would be a strong break of the level will trigger a violent shift upwards as large institutional money enters long positions.
This is obviously not a guaranteed trade, and there may very well be a pull back from 1800 level down to the new support at 1700, or even further to 1550.
This is merely analysis, and not trade advice. Risk capital at ones own risk and responsibility.