BolaBalogun
Long

LONG GBPUSD Outlook and Projection Top Down Analysis

OANDA:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
1 minute ago
This is my first post and I will like everyone reading it to maintain an open mind as I will be analysing the GBPUSD             0.03% chart based on current price action. Later I will discuss my trading strategy (and a bit about my 11years trading background) which should be easy to follow and do not hesitate to ask questions in case you felt I left certain explanation or you are particularly lost.

The Sterling has been performing better than it's US Dollar             0.01% counterparty as of 9th             August 2017 from October 2016 and it will be worthy to note some significant development to shape my decision making in the next coming weeks.

As of today 9th             August 2017 I will discuss a top down analysis approach starting with a weekly chart.
There are are couple of fundamentals data coming out of US and UK,this data such as :
CPI             0.18% in the 2 region
Retail Sales
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence data
All these data in the fundamentals can have some impact in the move we can see in the GBPUSD             0.03% going to next week.

1.From my Technical Perspective,there has been a Weekly 12EMA crossover the 36EMA to the upside. I read this as a potential signal of trend change in the making and I will add some other indicative reasons to this to maintain a bias in the move I will be expecting over the coming week. Bear in mind I will always maintain Long,Short or Neutral Zone indication as price develops.

2.Before that Weekly Crossover to buttress or add to confluence of indications that I will be considering will be the Market failure.Market failure is an indication that price has failed to make a new lower low and this higher low is formed at 1.19873. If we trade below 1.19873 that new trend that is potentially forming has been reset and new reference will be the Real low.

3.A new High @1.3048 formed after the Initial High @ 1.2775/95 has confirmed the beginning of new trend. A new higher low will be followup @1.2639

4.A 2nd Higher High was formed recently @ 1.3268 to further consolidate my current long bias.At this high we hit our longer term down/resistance trendline @ the 8th point.This zone is a Huge Significant zone that can send the price of GBPUSD             0.03% Technically to a new lower low below 1.16496 potential to a new bearish target. And that is why the UK Manufacturing Production Data that is expected tomorrow can be of a directional biased in the currrent price action of GBPUSD             0.03% .The last data came out @ -0.2% and the previous 4 also came out missing expectation at negative numbers. Having 2 quarters of negative data released which tomorrow one is anticipated positive can send GBPUSD             0.03% rate down potentially a 6 months of negative fundamental data is classified as recession.Although technically price are looking strong at the back negative Dollar we are seeing currently in the market.

5.A new higher low is the expectation and thus I will be building my Longs around Support Zone:
1.29328- 3 Week Low
1.2945- Weekly 12 EMA as Support bounce
1.2989- 2 Week Low

FOR DAY TRADING STRATEGY(Next 2-4days) Long Setup if the day close as a potential Doji
The strategy will be I will split whatever 2% of my account capital is into 3 and take 3 different position at 3 different prices above.
STOP LOSS will be managed around 1.2785
Targets will be looked for around d zones of 1.3050/100 Initially.


SHORT SETUP Scenario
BUT for a weekly Short Continuation should in case the data came in Negative for Sterling on a huge level tomorrow.
Any close below Monday Low 1.2952 can resume the further Shorts coming into the Sterling against the Dollar to target a huge Support Trendline and 200EMA @ 1.2967 area towards Brexit low @ 1.2795 zone.

As of the current moment when am publishing this outlook the GBPUSD             0.03% is looking a bit positive of about 0.1% and 14 pips daily range positive and for as long as we are above 1.2965 Monthly and 1.2988 Weekly Support area the bias is looking positive into some important fundamental d
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