DominikStone

Cable effectively continues to range sideways.

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
In spite of a significant bout of dollar strengthening yesterday, Cable effectively continues to range sideways. There has been historic support at 1.3459 which was breached by a handful of pips (very similar to EUR/USD             ) only for the support to broadly hold. The market has since rebounded and the bulls are actually coming into this session in a reasonable position still. Yesterday’s bear candle clearly puts a negative bias into this 8 day range that is now 165 pips but if the bulls can survive yesterday’s sharp move then confidence will increase in the development of support. Clearly there is more that needs to be done in order for this to be considered a recovery though. The resistance at 1.3618 is sizeable and only a close above would convince the bulls were truly making ground. Momentum indicators have mellowed a touch but also still remain in negative configuration. The Daily chart indicators are ticking higher coming into the European session today but there is a minor pivot around 1.3530 that needs to be overcome if the buyers are to position for recovery today. Initial support at 1.3480.
Comment: The rebound candle formed in yesterday’s session may not have been the strong bull reaction that the buyers would have hoped for, but the market still posted a gain of almost 30 pips on the session and once more the support of the range low around 1.3450 remains intact. There is still a sense that sterling is holding up well in the face of a broadly strengthening dollar but as yet there is little real sign in isolation that Cable is ready to embark upon a sustained recovery. With the market now trading in a 165 pip sideways band between 1.3450/1.3615 for the past ten sessions the momentum indicators have plateaued, albeit in negative territory still. The daily chart also continues to reflect this almost entirely neutral near term configuration too, with moving averages flat and converged. Coming into today, initial resistance is 1.3570 from yesterday’s high, whilst 1.3470 is initial support. Until we see a closing breach of the 165 pip range it is difficult to call a breakout with any conviction, however the sterling bulls are holding on admirably.
Comment: Sterling had been hanging on admirably last week as Cable consolidated in a tight 165 pip range between 1.3450/1.3615, however the selling pressure mounted once more on Friday and this has continued into the new week to break the support. A close below 1.3450 would now imply 165 pips of downside target which brings the market right back to the key December low at 1.3300. Momentum indicators have remained in negative configuration throughout recent weeks and continue to show little appetite for recovery in the market for now. Failed rebounds in recent days have been turning back from lower levels leaving 1.3570 as the first real marker to consider. Selling into strength is the strategy again, whilst a close below 1.3450 will begin to see this develop as overhead resistance. The daily chart shows intraday rallies being sold into, with 1.3480/1.3530 an initial band of resistance today.
Comment: Whilst the euro bulls are battling to form a recovery, there is little real suggestion that sterling is about to follow suit. Despite a 40 pip bounce of yesterday’s session low, another fairly decisive bear candle formed and the market has begun to slip lower again today. The previous range support around 1.3450 is also now a basis of new resistance and is now proving to be a barrier to gains. Momentum indicators remain deeply negatively configured following the range breakdown that implies 165 pips of implies target which has opened 1.3300 as a target area. The Daily chart shows little in the rebound which looks to have simply been a move to unwind momentum and renew downside potential. Rallies remain a chance to sell. Expect a retest of the 1.3390 low from yesterday in due course. There is now a strong near term sell zone between 1.3440/1.3490.
Comment: The potential recovery on Cable did not seem to last all that long as the market sold back into the close to leave a doji candle on the session. Closing back under the old support at $1.3450 (which is now a near term area of overhead supply) and being followed up by early downside today, the recovery prospects do not look promising. Momentum indicators may have plateaued but they remain negatively configured and all suggest that selling into strength remain the strategy. Yesterday’s lower high at $1.3490 now becomes a level of resistance to watch under $1.3570 and the key resistance at $1.3615. The hourly chart shows attempts at pulling a more positive configuration on momentum seem to have been denied and the $1.3390 support is very close. The range break below $1.3450 implied $1.3300 and with the recovery quickly scuppered, there is little to suggest this will not be seen.
Comment: TP1 reached. TP2 extension still valid setup.
Comment: The key December low at $1.3300 was tested during the latest strong bearish candle on Cable. Whilst the support has so far remained intact, the strength of the selling pressure remains and rallies are being used as a chance to sell. There has been an initial rebound this morning but the weight of overhead supply is likely to restrict any decisive rebound. The previous support of $1.3450 is now the start of a band of resistance. There is initial resistance at $1.3390 but there is a more considerable band $1.3450/$1.3490 now. There is little to suggest that the $1.3300 support will not again be tested, and below there the market opens $1.3220 and then the crucial low at $1.3025.
Comment: Simply breaking a downtrend is not necessarily a signal for a recovery, it may just be that the sellers have relinquished control. There are big questions now being asked of the Cable rally that has been looking to form in recent sessions. A worrying negative candle formed yesterday after what had been strong early session gains. If this move is confirmed by another negative candle today then the recovery will certainly be on hold. Furthermore, the 1.3203 May low will come back into view. Momentum indicators are now reflecting this stuttering rebound as the RSI hovers back around. The hourly chart shows a small base pattern above 1.3345 is struggling and a move below 1.3250 today would confirm the bears back in control. There is now resistance to factor in between 1.3345/1.3400.
Comment: Sterling bulls reacted strongly to the UK Services PMI yesterday to continue the recent run higher. Considering the corrective implications of Monday’s negative candlestick, this was an important reaction and maintains the prospect of a sustained rebound. However, the market is now approaching the first real test in this recovery, the resistance around $1.3450 which was the old early May range low and a source of overhead supply. The daily momentum indicators are well set up for the test though, with the RSI rising into the 40s (a six week high). The Daily chart shows a near term uptrend channel formation but also initial resistance at 1.3420 which may lead to a slip back intraday today. The reaction to this slip back will be key for the near term outlook. Would the bulls continue to support the correction above the 1.3345 pivot then this would be a strong indication of continued recovery for a move above 1.3250. A breakout above 1.3450 opens 1.3615. The higher reaction low at 1.3290 is now key near term.
Comment: The Cable recovery may not be as developed as that of EUR/USD but it is nonetheless in motion. The key test today comes with the old key floor at 1.3450 which was previously supportive but is now resistance. An initial look at this level was rebuffed yesterday, but the bulls are coming back again early today and a closing breakout would be a real sign of intent now. It would open further recovery towards a test of the early May highs around $1.3615. The Daily chart shows the move higher is running within an uptrend channel with higher lows and higher highs. Corrections are a chance to buy. A near term breakout above 1.3400/20 also gives a ground of initial support and moves to unwind are now seen as an opportunity for the bulls. The support around $1.3345 is increasingly building as a key area near term.
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