NelsonVanAlden
Short

GBPNZD - POTENTIAL SWING TRADE

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
Potential Short opportunity

  • - Lower high on falling trendline lower high relative to December 1st 17 high
  • Test of trendline is overbought daily Stochastic (14,3,3) confluent with 6th december 17 low (green eclipse) turning resistance with double top , also corresponding with 618% retrace from previous swing high
  • ABC correction seemingly complete
  • Thursday candle formed shooting star with Friday candle closing higher albeit inside thursday candle - consolidative, breakout pending
  • 4HR candle breakdown of Friday: At triangle resistance we saw Tweezer top , spinning top , hanging man followed with a bearish closing candle for the week. On monday price continued to consolidate with a further shooting star , testing triangle resistance and another shooting star forming LH on tops - BEARISH risks considerable! Price then broke down towards triangle support
Trade closed manually
Comment: 280 pips trade closed
BoE rate decision later in the week. Carney has recently expressed optimism on wage inflation picking up as Brexit risks seemingly subside. It seems markets have done pricing in Brexit uncertainty also.
With UK GDP growth coming in higher than expected, increasing speculation of a rate hike from market participants in May rather than later in the year with Carney having a chance to dissent against that last week in address to lawmakers, there's increasing potential BoE may prepare markets for a rate hike sooner rather than later. MPC members have consistently said further rate hikes are warranted albeit and a gradual and limited pace.
Therefore, in the inflation report & forecasts, if UK GDP Forecasts are upgraded in the near term combined with multi decade low unemployment, wage inflation picking up modestly X Brexit transition deal being secured ahead of May, this will incite and spur speculation that BoE is poising to move ahead with a hike in May.

If that is the case, sterling will likely spike in reaction. Will it follow through? depends on Carneys outlook, mon pol statement and the magnitude of the potential upgrade in GDP expectations

So, It may serve to close out 80% of the position ahead of BoE super day/move stop loss to break even in conjunction or even short cover with a hedging long position provided the aforementioned conditions occur. Will decide as price action ensues over the next few days
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NelsonVanAlden NelsonVanAlden
at a gradual and limited pace***
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