khansalarehsan
Short

Can I still get into EURUSD Short and make profit? YESSS!!!!

FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Dear Friends,
I have recently published an idea for Shorting EURUSD             with potential 220 pips of profit. Please see “Related Ideas” below.

As you can see this trade is like 75% in profit however price got to a different level of supports and Fibo which I will review later in this post. However; there has a beautiful price action in EURUSD             and some underlying markets that I would like to share my thoughts with you. If you liked it please write a comment and Like the idea!

We will review the followings in this post:
A) The most recent EURUSD             price action
B) Underlying EURO             markets
C) Underlying USD markets




A) The most recent EURUSD             price action


See the following wedge formation which is formed during 36 hours. Pay attention to the points where the price has touched the upper and lower band of the wedge . If you are new into forex try to find the same formation in other markets or in different time frames.



The above chart is 15 min EURUSD            


If we go to shorter time frame we can even see that there are 2 H&S formations sitting at the lower band of the wedge .





Draw the neckline on your chart and extend it to the right. Wait for the neckline to be broken, and then sell EU.



B) Underlying EURO             Markets



In this section we review the major markets in EUOR region.



First let’s look at the weighted average EURO             . You can make the same chart on you watchlist. Just see the formula on the screenshot title and just type that on your watchlist search box.
Months ago I mentioned in my posts that weekly RSI for weighted average signals a significant bearish market. See whether you could have expected this EURO             bearishness by only looking at the RSI? This is what you could see at that time.





Very clear, right? Use RSI for your analysis particularly for weekly charts. Then see what happened next.






and it is an astonishing price action on weekly time frame if I zoom in. Guess why?





1. Bearish engulfing 2) Bounded off the EMA 14 and 21 (Always use these two) 3) Bounced off the Rising trend line .

Friends EURO             bearishness has just started. Can you see that? We do not need anyone to tell us that. It is clear.


Also do not forget TRIPLE top







And why not looking at the monthly? The EURO             bearishness is just started right? Even if it is going to visit only EMA 14 we have a few hundred pips to earn.







Also remember that on 17/05/2018 EURO             did not make a lower low and it is only an Inside Bar . Therefore the bearish move is not ended. Also if you wonder why EURO             did not in the last session, it is because the main FIB level. See the red line. After this red line our target will be 1.17.







Next chart I would like to review is Euro             future. Remember to replicate you need to just type the screenshot title on your watchlist search box.
See where we are now!







And if I zoom in, you will see the beautiful bearish engulfing candle that is forming now. The candle is still open but very likely to close like this due to not having any major risk event on tab.







You may ask that will the weekly candle closes below the rising channel and blue wedge? I would say most likely yes. See a shorter time frame price action. See how this rising trend lines acting as stronger resistance.







Remember that the last two daily candles closed outside the wedge and channel. If this break is a true break, as the weighted average suggested, then you can imagine there is no support to stop Euro futures             too as these candles
Comment:


Followings are the European countries indices. The higher the go the lower the EURO going to be. The reason for that is that big companies are usually foreign companies and with cheaper currency the will have stronger P&L and therefore stronger index.

See German index (DAX). Obvious, right?






EUSTX50. Price has some upside room plus if you look at the lower band of the flag it made a false break out (see the red circle). We may say a big move up once got to resistance.





I expect CAC to break the rising trend line too. See how many times it attempted to break the resistance. Four times. With only once visiting the lows.







C) Underlying USD markets


This is weighted average USD. See how it broke it recently and the price held above the falling trend line. Also do not forget that the weighted average YEN and Nikkei (future) shown above have opposite correlation with USD. I believe USD can hold above the falling trend line for the same reason that YEN weighted average could not stay above falling trend line. If you are not convinced with the chart below, do not worry I have a lot for you.





Here is the most important chart of this trading idea. Amazing, astonishing breakout of the TNX. Broke 2016 resistance at 3.04% and now is around 3.10%. We got there a month ago and the price could not break it. But see the significant breakout. 10Yrs Yield got the same message too.







And I thought why not zoom in again.






US 10 Yrs bonds and YES another H&S is about to be prepared and see the potential of USD strength here. Just amazing.






Where both USD Weighted average and DXY shown some minor signs of the pullback USD futures just did not shown any of these signs and it is just heading higher and higher.





This is the interesting part when bond futures broke both H&S Neckline and two key support levels recently. This is in line with TNX and other USD underlying markets.






And if you have been following me on GOLD you know that my third short trade on Gold is also about to get to the target. Cheaper gold simply means stronger USD because your USD purchase power increases and you can buy more GOLD with it.





Do not forget to Like, Share and leave a comment if you liked my analysis.
Thank you,

KHAN
Comment: Inverted H&S on USD weighted average just now ...



Comment: Flag on EURO Weighted Average now


Comment: Flag is broken and retested


Comment: Retesting the Neckline


Comment: Dear Friends I hope you have a great weekend. Also just added a heavy one to keep over the weekend. See you on Monday.
Khan
I need to clear my mind to read what you wrote. For a beginner all you wrote like a maze for now. I just did sell Eur blindly. 1.17 is target with trailing stop lost. I assume after that (1.17) there will a time to go for long. Thank you for your kind effort and timing.
Reply
@ALPECCINO, Thanks for following me my friend. However I suggest you to watch lots of YouTube learning materials. They are free and very useful for someone who just begins...
Reply
Amazing analysis! Learning so much from you!
Reply
@Seb86x, I am pleased to hear that. TY
Reply
Thanks you for your very good analysis!!
What is the traget for this trade?
Reply
@Toinevv, Thank you for following me too. 1.17 or lower
Reply
Thank you Khan for all the time you put into your analysis.
Your are an amazing great teacher and leader!!
Reply
@ANAIS1, Many thanks my friend. Teacher maybe but leader hmmm :) Have a nice weekend.
Reply
Thank you,Very good, very helpful to me, I'm planning to sell eur.
Reply
@pengliangju, I hope you made money with this trade my friend.
Reply
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